by Doris Jolicoeur, CD Associate Broker, Professional Realty Group Mortgage Associate, Verico Brokers for Life
With the lowering of oil prices and related job uncertainty, many consumers today are fearing a drop in housing values this year. Some of the concern stems from our Real Estate Association of Edmonton (RAE) news releases this month stating that sales were down this January forgetting the fact that sales were up 11% in 2014. Something to consider, as reported on Global Edmonton last week, January showed an increase in job creation in our province.
The following are facts that could lead you to your own conclusion. December 2014 sales in the Edmonton city proper were generally the same as last month’s at 344 units sold. Previous years’ Januarys (2014-2008) showed numbers as follows: 435, 446, 395, 351, 365, 334, and 580 units in 2008. Seems like January 2009 and 2011 had similar sale numbers as did last month. Looking back year over year since our last peak, 2009 and 2011 are the years that showed dips in average home prices, otherwise, housing prices increased yearly. Keep in mind that these “dips” were ever only of $5000-10,000 in value on the average home. Even taking a possible $10,000 drop on Morinville’s January average price, this translates to a decreased monthly mortgage payment of only $45. Will buyers wait for the price to drop to save the $45?
Speaking of Morinville’s average single family home price, last month, we saw 11 homes and no condominiums sell, with an average single family home price of $381,163. This is a 16.9% increase over December’s price of $326,142, and a 11% increase over November’s. A year ago last month, the average price was 5.1% lower and 14.5% lower in 2013. Morinville’s average home is now priced at 11.3% less than Edmonton and 20.1% less than St Albert’s. The average price in the whole of the Edmonton CMA in January was only 10.8% higher. Historically, Edmonton prices tend to be about 18% higher than in Morinville.
Homes took 70 days to sell, which is a increase of 36 days from December, 10 days shorter than November, but they still took 9 days less to sell than in 2014. It took a Morinville home 17 to 28 days longer to sell than average Edmonton and St Albert homes.
In January, the MLS system reported 1298 new listings and 390 units sold giving us a listings to sales ratio of 30% and utterly saturating the Edmonton (and area) market. Contrarily, on the MLS this morning, only 8 SF home with a minimum of 3 bedrooms (total) and a double garage home was listed at $381,000 or less, only 3 under $335,000. The Morinville housing market doesn’t seem to have had the effect of saturation