Alberta’s new lower modelling shows significant hospitalization and ICU drop at peak

Above: Premier Jason Kenney speaks to media Apr. 15 in the file photo. The Premier announced Tuesday that Alberta had added a new lower likely tier to its COVID-19 modelling.

by Morinville News Staff

Albertans’ efforts in minimizing the spread of COVID-19 have led The Government of Alberta to introduce a low scenario to its COVID-19 modelling.

That lower tear on the model estimates 298 Albertans will require hospitalization, 95 of those needing critical care when the virus reaches its peak. Currently, Alberta has 82 in hospital and 21 in intensive care units.

Alberta’s original probable modelling scenario estimated 596 people in Alberta would require hospitalization at the peak, with 190 requiring critical care.

The government says if current trends continue, the new lower tier of the model will become the most likely scenario for Alberta when Alberta reaches its peak of the illness in late May, originally estimated as mid-May. The government now expects the number of hospitalized Albertans is predicted to be lower than originally estimated at the peak.

“The data show us that our efforts to lower the peak of the virus are working, but we must remain vigilant,” Premier Jason Kenney said Tuesday. “We continue to refine our modelling in order to ensure our health-care system is prepared. While we are still a ways off from returning to our normal way of life, our government is working around the clock on a phased approach to relaunch our economy safely. It is essential Albertans continue to exercise common sense and follow public health guidance so we can get the economy moving again as quickly as possible.”

The government attributes Albertans’ efforts in flattening the curve, Alberta’s younger-than-average population, and AHS’ aggressive testing measures, as the reason for the new lower modelling scenario and its likelihood of being the province’s most realistic scenario.

AHS says the health-care system has scaled up to support patients at the peak of the pandemic in any of the modelling scenarios.

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  1. It’s always good to prepare for the worst and be thankful when it’s not needed.
    I was surprised to read yesterday that 472 healthcare workers including 22 doctors in Alberta contracted Covid. We really need to stay the course to protect them. I don’t know how we can ever repay them and their families for their selflessness. They really are heroes.

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